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In a best-case scenario taken into account by ASPES (Association for Economic and Social Studies and Forecasts), the tobacco sector could contribute to Romania's economy with EUR 5.7 billion per year, which would mean 2.56% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The research analyses the contribution of the tobacco sector to GDP formation and also highlights a number of scenarios on industry's evolution in various assumptions and the impact of this evolution on the economy.
Final value of the contribution ti GDP of the sector (EUR bilion)
The best-case scenario relies on an assumption of economic growth at the level of Romania's potential and on a review of the hostile way in which the industries considered ”undesirable”, including tobacco, are currently seen. In this scenario, smuggling is at the average level of the European Union, about 10%. Based on these variables, the turnover of the sector increases by 8% and in the related areas by 9-12%. This development adds to the GDP EUR 2.16 billion per year, which brings the effective contribution of the sector from about EUR 3.6 billion (level related to 2019) to over EUR 5.7 billion per year, corresponding to 2.56% in GDP formation (up 0.96% per year).
The accentuated decline scenario relies on the assumption of recession at European Union level and implicitly in Romania, accompanied by the intensification of market restrictions and barriers in the tobacco sector. Against the backdrop of collapse of the purchasing power, cigarette smuggling would increase by 10 p.p. compared to an average level of 16 p.p. In this scenario, a sharp decline in industry's turnover is estimated, by 18%, and a reduction of turnovers in related areas by 12-7%. In this worst-case scenario, loss in GDP would be around EUR 1.46 billion per year. The contribution of the sector would decrease to only EUR 2.1 billion, representing the equivalent of around 0.95% in GDP compared to sector's contribution in 2019, i.e. 1.6% of GDP, the equivalent of EUR 3.6 billion.
In the moderate growth scenario,, the turnover of the sector grows by only 3%, and in related areas by 3-5%. Smuggling is at an average level of 16%. Under these circumstances, the sector will pay to the budget approximately EUR 4.6 billion per year and have a weight in GDP of 2.04%.
According to the evaluated data, 75-80% of the turnover of the relevant industry represents amounts paid to the state budget, meaning about EUR 3.6 billion in 2019.. The amounts paid to the Budget in 2020 were by 10.9% higher than in the previous year, according to the Ministry of Finance.
According to INS, in 2020 total exports amounted to over EUR 1.3 billion, climbing by 45% compared to the previous year. As a result, the positive contribution of tobacco to the balance of payments reached about EUR 1 billion.
Romania is the third largest European producer of cigarettes, after Germany and Poland. The sector's contribution to GDP is substantial, 1.6% in 2019.
ASPES research is based on data from public institutions, being conducted with JTI support.
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